San Diego, California Mortgage Market Update

Today's mortgage market update 4/04/08
April 4th, 2008 11:44 AM

Market Happenings:

U.S. payrolls contract by 80,000 in March, while the jobless rate jumps to 5.1%, highest since September 2005. In employment data that would seem worthy of the name recession, the government reported Friday the steepest monthly job losses in five years as well as a spike in the unemployment rate for March. The report confirms widespread pessimism about the near-term economic outlook. Nonfarm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March, the Labor Department said. It marked the largest decline seen since March 2003, underscoring how reluctant employers remain to committing to making new hires. Private-sector payrolls have now declined for four consecutive months, the data showed. The nation's unemployment rate surged to 5.1% last month, the highest since September 2005. The decline in payrolls was steeper than the 60,000 decrease that had been expected by Wall Street economists surveyed. Adding to the sense of weakness in employment, payrolls in January and February were revised lower by a cumulative 67,000. Job losses thus have totaled 232,000 so far this year, an average of 77,000 lost jobs per month. As the economy is clearly in slow down mode and growth likely receding now, debt buyers see less concern over the economy heating up and potentially eroding their future returns. This has sparked a rally in debt land and mortgages have been invited as the FNMA MBS 5.50% coupon is trading up 16 ticks (+16/32) since the opening bell. This should translate into mortgage investor ratesheet pricing improving by up to 50 bps.

Industry News:

Hanover Posts Big Loss, Needs Cap Infusion

Hanover Capital Mortgage Holdings, a mortgage investing REIT based in Edison, N.J., lost $37.7 million in the fourth quarter, signaling that it may not survive as a going concern unless it receives a capital infusion. "Additional sources of capital are required for the company to generate positive cash flow and continue operations beyond 2008," the real estate investment trust said in a statement. Hanover lost $80 million in all of 2007, compared to a slight loss in 2006. Hanover invests in prime mortgage securities and mortgage loans on a leveraged basis. Its portfolio of investments includes subordinated tranches of mortgage-backed securities whose value has slipped greatly over the past year. It noted that its net loss "is primarily due to an impairment expense of $73.6 million for other than temporary declines in fair value" of its MBS portfolio. Hanover said it is seeking additional capital and has engaged Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. as an investment adviser.

Triad May Cease Writing New MI

Triad Guaranty Corp., Winston-Salem, N.C., has raised the possibility of going into run-off and ceasing the writing of new mortgage insurance policies. The disclosure came in the company's delayed 10-K filing, which had been on hold because Triad said it was in discussions with an unnamed potential investor. The filing says the company needs to "significantly augment our capital resources in the second quarter of 2008 in order to preserve our ability to continue to write new insurance." But it has not yet succeeded in finding an investor. Meanwhile, Fitch and Moody's have cut the company's ratings. Fitch reduced the insurer financial strength rating from AA-minus to BBB-minus, while Moody's cut its IFS rating from Aa3 to Baa3 and kept it on review for a further possible downgrade. The Fitch move caused Freddie Mac to require Triad to come up with a remediation plan. Under a new Freddie Mac policy, Triad was not automatically dropped from a Type I to a Type II insurer when the rating was cut. Freddie said Triad has 90 days to submit the plan for approval, after which Freddie will determine whether to drop Triad into the Type II category, which imposes additional capital requirements and operational restrictions. Fannie Mae said it is in touch with Triad's management and that the company remains an approved mortgage insurance provider.

FHA Requiring 2nd Appraisals on Jumbos

The Federal Housing Administration is requiring a second appraisal on jumbo mortgages above $417,000 in declining markets and limiting the maximum LTV on cash-out refinancings to 85%. The direct endorsement lender must select the appraiser for the second appraisal if the property is located in a market where house prices are declining, according to an FHA mortgagee letter. The letter also imposes a maximum loan-to-value ratio on cash-out refinancings. If the "loan balance exclusive of FHA's upfront mortgage insurance premium will exceed $417,000, the LTV may not exceed 85% of the appraiser's estimated value," the FHA says. The economic stimulus bill signed by President Bush in mid-February temporarily raises the FHA loan limit to 125% of median home prices in high-cost areas, with a cap of $729,725.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1818, Congress decided the United States flag would consist of 13 red and white stripes and 20 stars, with a new star to be added for every new state.

-- On Today’s date in 1968, the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., 39, was shot to death as he stood on a balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Memphis, Tenn.; the killing sparked a wave of riots across the U.S. (James Earl Ray later pleaded guilty to assassinating King, then spent the rest of his life claiming his innocence and attempting to withdraw his guilty plea; he died in prison in 1998.)

-- Today Author-poet Maya Angelou is 80.

-- Today Actor Robert Downey Jr. is 43.

-- Today Actor Barry Pepper is 38.

-- Today Magician David Blaine is 35.

-- Today Actress and Mother to be Jamie Lynn Spears is 17.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 4th, 2008 11:44 AMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/30/2008
April 30th, 2008 3:14 PM


Market Happenings:

Mortgages and Bonds are stalled out at better levels, ticking around in tight ranges on slowed size. Traders see a slightly (tiny) higher chance of the Fed doing nothing on rates today (22% for a pause here at 2.25% with the balance holding on for the 25 basis point trim). Players note that the day's data was "old" (Q1 GDP +0.6% vs. expectations of +0.5% growth with Employment Costs and Chicago PMI coming in very near expectations) and subject to revisions, while the details (employment, spending) ran negative (bond positive) but not enough to get things cooking ahead of the Fed statement. The statement will be the major issue, with the dissention as well as the degree of emphasis on inflation being important components. Mortgages will likely be range bound until the Fed announcement at 11:15 AM PDT. Again the bias of their statement will likely move the market with more force than the actual cut (assuming it is within a 0 – 25 bps range). Currently FNMA 5.50% MBS are trading up 3 ticks (+3/32). Expect flat lender ratesheet pricing from late yesterday’s marks.

Industry News:

Countrywide Takes $3B in 1Q Charges

Countrywide Financial Corp., Calabasas, Calif., has reported a net loss of $893 million ($1.60 per share) in the first quarter, citing $3 billion of credit-related charges that weighed down results. The credit costs hit both Countrywide's mortgage banking unit, which lost $552 million in the quarter, and its bank, which lost $960 million. Countrywide posted small profits from its capital market and insurance units. The company produced $73 billion of loans in the first quarter, down from $117 billion in the first quarter of 2007. It serviced $1.484 trillion of home loans as of March 31, up from $1.352 trillion a year earlier. The $3 billion of credit-related charges included a $456 million provision for representation and warranty claims, a more than tenfold increase from the reps-and-warranties provision during the first quarter of 2007.

Frank Foresees Housing Package by July 4th

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., says it is "entirely possible" that Congress will send President Bush a legislative package by the Fourth of July that is responsive to the current housing crisis, reduces foreclosures, and increases confidence in the secondary-market agencies. The package would include two Federal Housing Administration bills and a GSE bill to strengthen regulation of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, the chairman told a Washington conference sponsored by the Independent Community Bankers of America. On Wednesday, Rep Frank expects to complete a committee mark-up of his FHA bill to refinance struggling homeowners with "underwater" mortgages. (The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up a government-sponsored enterprise bill on May 6.) The House has already passed a GSE regulatory reform bill. In addition, the House and Senate are close to an agreement on an FHA modernization bill that will make the FHA a safer alternative to subprime loans. "The crisis has generated some pressure" to act, Rep Frank told reporters. "We should have it done in June."

Index: Home Prices Down 12.7% Over Year

Prices of existing single-family homes continued their descent in February, falling to a level that was down 12.7% over the previous 12 months, according to a Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller housing price index that tracks resales in 20 metropolitan statistical areas. Since its peak in July 2006, the 20-city HPI has fallen 14.8%. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," said S&P economist David Blitzer. The Charlotte, N.C., market is the only MSA in the index still registering an annual increase (1.5%) in house prices. "The monthly data show that every one of the MSAs has now declined every month since September 2007, marking six consecutive months," Mr. Blitzer said. Separately, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that house prices are down 3.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the 12 months ended in February. However, prices rose 0.6% from January to February. OFHEO collects sales price data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase mortgages.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1789, George Washington took office in New York as the first president of the United States.

-- On Today’s date in 1803, the United States purchased the Louisiana Territory from France for 60 million francs, the equivalent of about $15 million. The deal took 6 months in underwriting before an approval was issued.

-- On Today’s date in 1812, Louisiana became the 18th state of the Union.

-- On Today’s date in 1945, as Russian troops approached his Berlin bunker, Adolf Hitler committed suicide along with his wife of one day, Eva Braun.

-- Today Singer Willie Nelson is 75.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 30th, 2008 3:14 PMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/29/08
April 29th, 2008 11:15 AM


Market Happenings:

Bid on Low Confidence : The confidence number was low, 62.3, but not quite as bad as anticipated 61, while the components such as labor conditions worsened with jobs "hard to get" showing the 3rd straight increase along with lowered expectations for income growth. Survey participants showed plans for taking vacations over the next 6-mos dropped to a 30-yr low. Prices are pushing back, with action spotty, while falling stocks may help, trade will be hard pressed to get much more here with the calendar weighing. The Fed is discussing the possibility of paying interest on commercial bank reserves to alleviate credit problems, according to WSJ. The FOMC will consider the issue at the meeting, tweaking its tools to help banks lend with lessened concerns over counterparty risk, but any actual move in that direction would require congressional involvement. As equities are dropping this morning with the Dow down over 50 pts, so money is be put to work in Agency Mortgage Backed’s albeit cautiously leading up to Fed day. Currently FNMA 5.00% are trading up 8 ticks (+8/32) which should net lender pricing improvements of up to 25 bps over yesterday’s ratesheets.

Industry News:

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Jump 23% in 1Q

Nearly 650,000 foreclosure filings were reported nationwide in the first quarter, up 23% from those of the previous quarter and 112% from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace based in Irvine, Calif. The nation's quarterly foreclosure rate was one filing for every 194 households, the company said in its Q1 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. (Foreclosure filings include default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions.) "Foreclosure activity in the first quarter increased on a year-over-year basis in 46 out of the 50 states and in 90% of the nation's 100 largest metro areas, demonstrating that most regions of the country are seeing more foreclosures," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "In some areas there are also some unusual, nonmarket factors impacting the foreclosure numbers. For example, the city of Philadelphia in late March issued a temporary moratorium on all foreclosure auctions for April, and the city has since adopted a program that will delay foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the owners have met face-to-face with lenders to attempt a loan workout plan that would prevent foreclosure."

Census Reports 1Q Rise in Vacant Homes

The Census Bureau has reported that the inventory of vacant homes listed for sale rose to 2.3 million in first quarter, up 4.6% from that of the previous quarter, and that the homeownership rate was unchanged. Listings of vacant homes rose dramatically in 2006 to 2.1 million, and this overhang on the real estate market continues to exert downward pressure on house prices. Since 2006 it has remained above the 2 million mark, and over the past two quarters there has been an uptick in listings -- probably reflecting bank sales of more foreclosed properties. The Census Bureau report also indicates that the homeownership rate held steady at 67.8% in the first quarter. However, the rate is down from 68.4% in the first quarter of 2007. The homeownership rate for blacks fell from 47.7% in the fourth quarter to 47.1% in the first quarter, while the rate for Hispanics rose from 48.5% to 48.9%.

Alliance: FHA Loans Fastest-Growing Product

Federal Housing Administration loans have become the fastest-growing product for an alliance of 110 local and regional mortgage bankers, constituting 35% of their loan volume in March, according to Lenders One chief executive president Scott Stern. Back in January 2007, FHA lending represented only 1% of their loan production. "Due to the tremendous growth, we refer to FHA as the 'Loan Product of the Year'," Mr. Stern said. The Lenders One CEO said he believes that FHA production could hit 40% of originations if Congress makes the increase in loan limits permanent and does not raise the FHA down payment requirement. Alliance members originated $40.4 billion in residential mortgages in 2007, and they are currently originating $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion a month.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1865, John Wilkes Booth, the assassin of President Lincoln, was surrounded by federal troops near Bowling Green, Va., and killed.

-- On Today’s date in 1986, the world's worst nuclear accident occurred at the Chernobyl plant in the Soviet Union.

-- On Today’s date in 1993, Conan O'Brien was named to succeed David Letterman as host of NBC's "Late Night" program. Pimpbot was born soon thereafter.

-- Today Actress-comedian Carol Burnett is 75.

-- Today Actor Jet Li is 45.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 29th, 2008 11:15 AMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/28/08
April 28th, 2008 10:31 AM


Market Happenings:

Slow Start to Busy Week : The calendar is back-loaded with events and trade is taking a very tentative approach. With much froth being blown off prices in the last month, the market is better, but still not well, priced for bad data. It will likely take decent sized downside misses to turn the ship around while anything inline could still hurt. The FOMC is nearly a foregone conclusion at 25 basis points of easing and the statement provides the juice depending on biases. In the meantime, light trade today will be gyrated around by equities which are getting boosted into their open on M&A news and technicals which still have some room to run on the downside. The market is edging its way higher in light trade getting a bounce out of last week's 2-month price lows on the 10-yr (corresponding to a yield of near 3.92%) and Agency MBS. Trade is wary of getting too far out in front of the event risk later this week so gains may get checked into the afternoon, particularly if equities squeeze out a rally. trade looks ahead to the pivotal calendar events this week (FOMC, GDP & payrolls) but currently FNMA MBS are up 8 ticks (+8/32) which should translate to lender ratesheet pricing improving by up to 25 bps.

Industry News:

HUD Waives Action on GSE AH Goals

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has determined that market conditions prevented Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from reaching two affordable housing subgoals in 2007, and it will not require the two government-sponsored enterprises to take corrective action. The two home-purchase subgoals are supposed to measure the GSEs' efforts in financing low-and moderate-income homebuyers. Fannie and Freddie submitted market data to HUD showing that rising home prices reduced the availability of affordable housing. In addition, the subprime meltdown and tighter credit conditions made the barriers to achieving the subgoals "insurmountable," Freddie Mac said. In letters to the chief executives of the two mortgage companies, HUD Assistant Secretary Brian Montgomery reported that information provided by the GSEs is "consistent" with HUD's market research. HUD has determined that the achievement of the two subgoals was "not feasible," Mr. Montgomery says in the April 24 letters. He also notes that HUD also considered the "financial stability" of Fannie and Freddie in evaluating their affordable housing performance. .

Big Builders Told to Pull Back or Fail

The nation's giant homebuilding firms must pull back if they are to survive the current downturn, an analyst with Wachovia Capital Markets in San Francisco warned at the National Association of Home Builders' Spring Construction Forecast Conference. "Geographic diversification didn't help anybody," Carl Reichardt, Wachovia's managing director and senior equity research analyst, told the conference in Washington. Whereas nine public builders were operating in just California and Florida in 1989, he pointed out, the same nine are now banging heads in a dozen states. Moreover, more than six of the 13 public builders Mr. Reichardt follows on a regular basis go at each other in more than half the 78 metropolitan areas where they build houses. The analyst said the options on the table are to "merge, die, or shrink," and since acquisitions "seem unlikely" given the current state of the financial markets, big builders must reorganize into super-regional operations. "Otherwise," he said, "they are going to continue to beat each other up." Mr. Reichardt also said the industry giants would do well to "focus more on manufacturing" and reducing construction cycle times while de-emphasizing such factors as maximum unit growth and land margins. "Wall Street recognizes that good margins can be made in the contractor business," he said.

Energy, Food Prices Could Trump Demographics

Homebuilders point to strong demographics in predicting a return to normal production levels once the current downturn ends, but the executive director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies says fundamentals alone may not be enough to float housing's boat. "Market conditions can swamp favorable demographic projections," Eric Belsky said at the National Association of Home Builders' Spring Construction Forecast Conference in Washington. Mr. Belsky pointed out that potential homebuyers "keep getting hit with other things" that may keep them on the sidelines for longer than most analysts are predicting. Rising energy costs, higher gasoline prices, and larger food bills are just a few of the things that are putting a big dent in the pockets of not just low-income families but also those with more substantial earnings, he said, and they are not offset by lower mortgage costs resulting from lower interest rates. "When in a pothole," Mr. Belsky said of would-be buyers, "it's hard to look at the road ahead of you."

This Week's Calendar:

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Apr 29

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Apr

62.0

61.0

64.5

Apr 30

08:15

ADP Employment

Apr

-60K

8K

Apr 30

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q1

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

Apr 30

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q1

3.0%

3.0%

2.4%

Apr 30

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q1

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

Apr 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Apr

49.0

47.5

48.2

Apr 30

10:30

Crude Inventories

04/26

NA

NA

2421K

Apr 30

14:15

FOMC Policy Statement

May 01

00:00

Auto Sales

Apr

5.1M

NA

4.9M

May 01

00:00

Truck Sales

Apr

6.3M

NA

6.2M

May 01

08:30

Initial Claims

04/26

358k

360K

342K

May 01

08:30

Personal Income

Mar

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

May 01

08:30

Personal Spending

Mar

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

May 01

08:30

PCE Core Inflation

Mar

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

May 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Mar

-1.0%

-0.7%

-0.3%

May 01

10:00

ISM Index

Apr

49.0

48.0

48.6

May 02

08:30

Average Workweek

Apr

33.7

33.7

33.8

May 02

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Apr

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

May 02

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Apr

-70K

-75K

-80K

May 02

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Apr

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

May 02

10:00

Factory Orders

Mar

0.4%

0.2%

-1.3%

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1788, Maryland became the seventh state to ratify the U.S. Constitution.

-- On Today’s date in 1988, a flight attendant was killed and more than 60 persons injured when part of the roof of an Aloha Airlines Boeing 737 tore off during a flight from Hilo to Honolulu.

-- Today "Tonight Show" host Jay Leno is 58.

-- Today Rapper Too Short is 42.

-- Today Actress Jessica Alba is 27.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 28th, 2008 10:31 AMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 04/21/2008
April 21st, 2008 1:17 PM


Market Happenings:

Trade is losing on the perception that the Fed may be done after the Apr cut and that the financial world will be able skirt deeper troubles (on the example of Citi). The fed funds are still fully looking for a FOMC cut of only 25bp while a tiny minority has decided the Fed does nothing at month's end, while looking for less and less Fed out the calendar. The complete flip in perception, they were 50/50 for a 25bp versus 50bp cut last week, is feeding upon itself. The market is falling back after working its way out of a modest hole overnight. A bid in global bonds and a nasty earnings miss from BofA have done little to alter the somewhat sour mood on treasuries. No economic releases slated for today. The week has a short list however some relatively influential data is set for later in the week with new and existing home sales for March, Durable Goods and U of M Consumer Sentiment. So far in morning trading, FNAM MBS 5.00% coupons are flat.

Industry News:

Ginnie MBS Issuance Hits 4-Year High

The issuance of Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities rose to nearly $15 billion in March, the highest rate since November 2003, according to the agency. Theodore B. Foster, senior vice president for mortgage-backed securities at Ginnie Mae, said issuance has been increasing steadily since October. As the subprime mortgage and private-label MBS markets collapsed, "investors began moving toward the safety and stability of Ginnie Mae MBS," he said. Ginnie Mae's share of the MBS market declined to a low of 4% in 2005. Now, the private-label MBS market -- backed primarily by subprime loans -- represents just 7% of the total MBS market, compared with 57% two years ago, Ginnie Mae reported. "Currently, agency and government MBS are the primary sources of mortgage credit available for home financing," Mr. Foster said. "There is strong evidence that this trend will continue. Our issuers have indicated that as much as 30% or 40% of their business may be securitized through Ginnie Mae this year. We expect Ginnie Mae to issue between $175 and $200 billion in MBS in calendar year 2008."

Citi Takes $6B in Subprime Hits

Citigroup Inc. incurred $6 billion in pretax subprime mortgage writedowns/credit costs and took a net $5.1 billion loss in the first quarter. Other writedowns during the quarter included "a downward credit adjustment of $1.5 billion related to exposure to monoline insurers," the company said. Fitch downgraded Citi's long-term issuer default rating and Standard and Poor's put Citi's counterparty credit rating on CreditWatch Negative in response to its earnings results. Citi chief executive officer Vikram Pandit said the company is taking steps to offset its concerns, including realigning its mortgage business, planning the sale over time of huge volumes of on-balance-sheet mortgage assets, and launching multibillion-dollar capital raising efforts.

Economist Says 'Stagflation' a Threat

The chief economist for the New York Stock Exchange says rising commodity prices coupled with the housing downturn's drag on the economy is fostering the possibility of "stagflation," a mixture of inflation and economic weakness last seen in the 1970s. Speaking at SourceMedia's second annual mortgage servicing conference in Dallas, former New York Federal Reserve economist Paul Bennett said he does not see "much sign of a bottom" in housing conditions, given the continuing declines in residential construction activity. He said home prices, already down about 10% to 15% nationally last year, may fall by a similar amount this year. Competition for oil and other scarce resources from rapidly growing economies such as China is driving up prices for many commodities, he said. That is adding to inflationary pressure despite the economic weakness in the United States. Still, he expects the Federal Reserve Board to continue reducing interest rates in the near term to help stabilize the U.S. housing sector and offset the risk that rate resets will drive up foreclosures.

This Week's Calendar:

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Apr 22

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Mar

4.90M

4.92M

5.03M

Apr 23

10:30

Crude Inventories

04/19

NA

NA

-2356K

Apr 24

08:30

Durable Orders

Mar

-0.5%

0.0%

-1.7%

Apr 24

08:30

Initial Claims

04/19

375K

375K

372K

Apr 24

10:00

New Home Sales

Mar

585K

580K

590K

Apr 25

10:00

Mich Sentiment-Rev.

Apr

63.2

63.2

63.2

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1789, John Adams was sworn in as the first vice president of the United States.

-- On Today’s date in 1960, Brazil inaugurated its new capital, Brasilia, transferring the seat of national government from Rio de Janeiro.

-- Today Britain's Queen Elizabeth II is 82.

-- Today Actor Tony Danza is 57.

Today's market update is brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 21st, 2008 1:17 PMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/15/2008
April 15th, 2008 11:24 AM


Market Happenings:

The Producer Price Index came out smoking this morning, up 1.10% for March, far greater than economists expectations of a 0.60% rise. The Core reading came in as expected at 0.20% which begs the question, is the core measure relative in today’s market place where the primary drivers for inflationary pressures of late appear to be food and energy costs, which are excluded from the core reading. The debt markets appear to be in a bind as inflationary indicators are growing yet economic growth is receding. The market is stuck in a situation where it is "too expensive and too cheap" with prices sitting at multi-year highs, leading, of course, to yields at multi-year lows. Bit even with the hardest battle being to the upside, there is a fundamental floor under prices, especially as the economic picture hasn't brightened and the prognosis aint pretty. So far this morning Agency MBS pricing is off 14 ticks (-14/32) on FNMA 5.0% coupons. Expect lender ratesheet pricing to pull back from post re-price levels of yesterday by up to 50 bps.

Industry News:

OFHEO: GSEs 'Significant Supervisory Concern'

Even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have made "good progress" in fixing the operational problems that led to their respective accounting scandals, the two remain a "significant supervisory concern," according to a new report issued by their regulator. In the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's annual report to Congress, the agency notes that the two posted a combined loss of $5.2 billion last year after writing down the value of their mortgage portfolios and taking losses on derivatives. The agency says the GSEs are a concern "due to poor financial performance and the quantity of credit risk resulting from the continued market deterioration and its dominant, adverse impact on current and future earnings."

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Rise Again

New foreclosure filings rose 5% in March and were 57% higher than the level recorded a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace based in Irvine, Calif. The company's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report indicates that 234,685 new foreclosure properties were added to the rolls in March. "The March numbers show that overall foreclosure activity so far this year continues to run nearly 60% above the levels we saw last year," said James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive officer. "On a year-over-year basis, default notices were up nearly 57% and bank repossessions were up nearly 129%, but auction notices were up only 32%, indicating that more defaulting homeowners are simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender." The company said Nevada, California, and Florida again recorded the highest foreclosure rates in March.

Deutsche Bank: Capital Crisis Will Continue

Resolution may be near for the market's funding crisis, but capital concerns are likely to persist until the housing market recovers, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. "It might be the end of the funding crisis, at least in the U.S.," said economics/strategy researchers Mustafa Chowdhury, Marcus Huie, and Anish Lohokar. But the researchers said they see "the capital crisis persisting for quite a while, at least to the end of the year."

Will Crisis Affect Pricing for a Decade?

The current financial crisis "will affect market structure and pricing for at least a decade," according to a new report from JPMorgan Securities Ltd., London. The report from JPMorgan's global asset allocation and alternative investments unit blames excessive credit risk taking in "housing, leverage, and maturity transformation" for the crisis. It predicts, among other things, that central banks' extension of liquidity to broker-dealers will be permanent and lead to regulation in that area.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1912, the British luxury liner RMS Titanic sank in the North Atlantic off Newfoundland, less than three hours after striking an iceberg. Some 1,500 people died.

-- On Today’s date in 1865, President Lincoln died, several hours after being shot at Ford's Theater in Washington by John Wilkes Booth. Andrew Johnson became the nation's 17th president.

-- On Today’s date in 1947, Jackie Robinson, baseball's first black major league player, made his official debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers on opening day. (The Dodgers defeated the Boston Braves, 5-3.)

-- On Today’s date in 2008 your taxes are due.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 15th, 2008 11:24 AMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/11/2008
April 11th, 2008 10:01 AM


Market Happenings:

University of Michigan Consumer sentiment was released and slammed well below economists’ expectations. The number came in at 63.2 vs expectations of 69. The bonds are slinking back off early session highs as trade is looking ahead to next week and squaring up positions. The whack-job on sentiment via UofM was treated as a profit taking opportunity and not much else. Trade is eyeing equities for short term directional plays but that too will likely dry up into the afternoon, barring a larger implosion. With the stock market falling and the bearish consumer sentiment, debt markets have appreciated a nice little rally as we roll into the weekend. FNMA MBS 5.00% are up 9 ticks (+9/32). There is little else in the way of hay making news to the closing bell so expect lenders ratesheet pricing to stick right around 25 bps better than closing marks from yesterday.

Industry News:

Housing Tax Bill Approved

The House Ways and Means Committee has approved a housing tax bill by a 35-5 vote that provides a $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, expands the use of revenue bonds to refinance subprime loans, and streamlines the low-income housing tax credit program. The tax bill also clears the way for Federal Home Loan Banks to guarantee general tax-exempt municipal bonds, not just bonds that are used to finance housing programs. Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel, D-N.Y., said the vote shows there is "strong bipartisan support for this housing tax package designed to help families cope with the housing crisis." Like a tax provision in a Senate foreclosure prevention bill, the Rangel bill allows homeowners that take the standard deduction to deduct their properties taxes. However, the House bill does not include a controversial net-operating-loss carry-back provision for homebuilders and other companies suffering losses in 2008 and 2009, which is contained in the Senate bill. House leaders plan to combine the Rangel tax bill with a bill the House Financial Services Committee is expected to approve soon to refinance 1 million distressed homeowners into Federal Housing Administration loans.

'Scratch & Dent' Investor Bayview Lays Off 100+

Bayview Financial of Florida -- a "scratch-and-dent" and small-balance commercial lender -- has laid off more than 100 workers at two affiliates, Silver Hill Financial and InterBay Funding, industry executives have told MortgageWire. At deadline time, the company had not returned telephone calls about the matter. Based in Coral Gables, Bayview operates several mortgage-related businesses, including a loan acquisition group that has been very active in the scratch-and-dent niche, according to investors who play in that market. Until recently, Silver Hill employed at least 450 and InterBay 800, said a source, but those numbers could not be confirmed. David Ertel, Bayview's chairman and chief executive, has worked in various aspects of the mortgage business for three decades.

PMI: Home Price Drop Risk Up in Some MSAs

The risk of home price declines in the nation's 50 largest housing markets is still rising in states where price growth has far exceeded historical norms, but has begun to decline elsewhere, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., Walnut Creek, Calif. According to the PMI U.S. Market Risk Index, there are now 13 markets with a greater than 60% chance of price declines over the next two years. Risk is largely concentrated in various MSAs in California and Florida as well as in Las Vegas and Phoenix, PMI reported. "Excess supply is responsible for much of the risk we're seeing in the market," said David W. Berson, chief economist and strategist for The PMI Group. "The excess supply of housing in the United States is 9.2 months for existing homes (the 20-year average has been 6.0) and 9.8 months for new homes (the 20-year average has been 5.5), which will continue to depress prices for MSAs in risk ranks 1 and 2."

Misc:

-- On today’s date in 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law the Civil Rights Act of 1968, which included the Fair Housing Act, a week after the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

-- On today’s date in 2007 MSNBC announced it was dropping its simulcast of the "Imus in the Morning" radio program, responding to growing outrage about host Don Imus' racial slur against the Rutgers women's basketball team. (CBS Radio followed suit the next day.)

-- Today Singer Joss Stone is 21

Thanks for your business!

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 11th, 2008 10:01 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage market update 4/10/2008
April 10th, 2008 11:49 AM


Market Happenings:

Trade is just meandering around, with little behind it and now warily eyeballing stocks as they sneak back to better territory. The market will be hard pressed to get much without some new news. Initially Jobless Claims came in a bit better than expectations although still lofty while the uptick in the trade deficit likely caught some by surprise, yet another concern for the buck if it can't even squeeze out lower deficits at such low levels. Equities will carry the baton for mortgages for the remainder of the day. The Dow is currently up about 60 points and Agency MBS are near flat. Investor ratesheet pricing should be about the same.

Industry News:

Bush Turns Back on Senate Foreclosure Bill

The Bush administration has unexpectedly turned its back on the Senate foreclosure prevention bill, arguing that it would "do more harm than good by bailing out lenders and speculators." White House press secretary Dana Perino said the president doesn't like providing funds for cities to purchase foreclosed properties, or tax credits for homebuyers that buy such properties. The White House even has concerns about provisions it likes, especially the Federal Housing Administration modernization bill that is part of the foreclosure package and the expansion of revenue bonds to refinance subprime borrowers. "In the end, it appears that the Senate versions of even those proposals, because of changes they made to it, raise concerns here," Ms. Perino said. "And therefore, this is not a bill that we could support." The Senate voted 92-6 on Tuesday to limit debate on the foreclosure bill and prevent changes that would allow bankruptcy judges to restructure mortgages or strip a tax provision that would allow homebuilders, mortgage lenders, and others reporting losses in 2008 and 2009 to receive tax rebates. Sen. Gregg Judd, R-N.H., railed against the net-operating-loss carry-back provision after the vote, contending that it would reward builders who were "greedy" and built too many homes. "They sold them to people who couldn't afford them," the senator said. "They sold them with inappropriately structured subprime mortgages. Now they want their taxes back."

FHA Reform (With RBP) Deemed Top Priority

The Bush administration is demanding that Congress produce a stand-alone Federal Housing Administration modernization bill that authorizes the mortgage insurance agency to charge risk-based premiums -- which is deliberately absent from the House-passed and Senate-passed versions. The Senate has placed its FHA bill in larger foreclosure prevention legislation that the White House is trying to derail. The Senate bill contains a 12-month moratorium on risk-based pricing. The House FHA bill places restrictions on RBP. "Any bill must give the FHA the tools needed to price for additional risk," FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery told a House panel. Congress needs to make the FHA bill a "priority over other housing legislation," Mr. Montgomery testified. "As a first order of business, a good FHA modernization bill must be sent to the president." The FHA commissioner also explained that the White House opposes funding for cities and states to purchase foreclosed properties because it would benefit lenders who own a lot of vacant and foreclosed properties. "In addition, it may have the unintended consequence of making foreclosure a more attractive option for lenders," he said.

Freddie Enhancing PC Disclosures

Freddie Mac is enhancing its disclosures so that investors in its guaranteed mortgage-backed securities can tell whether the underlying loans were originated by mortgage brokers or the borrower's income and assets were verified. "Beginning no later than August 2008, Freddie Mac expects to expand its third-party origination disclosure on all newly issued Participation Certificate securities," the secondary-market agency said, so investors can see whether the loans were made by brokers, correspondents, or retail lenders. Freddie Mac says it also plans to start disclosing in June nine new loan-level variables involving income verification, combined loan-to-value ratios, and debt-to-income ratios starting. "These expanded disclosures are timely, particularly in light of continuing volatility in the housing and mortgage markets, and we believe they will help investors better evaluate our securities and help support our mission to provide stability and affordability to America's home financing system," Freddie vice president Mark Hanson said.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1912, the RMS Titanic set sail from Southampton, England, on its ill-fated maiden voyage.

-- Today Sportscaster John Madden is 72.

-- Today Actor Steven Seagal is 57.

-- Today Rock singer-musician Brian “Alka” Setzer is 49.

-- Today Actor Haley Joel Osment is 20.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 10th, 2008 11:49 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage market update 4/09/2008
April 9th, 2008 12:31 PM


Market Happenings:

Trade has been boosted on talk that the Fed will keep working "creativity" into the markets, while the fall-off in equities adds some punch. Trade has been working its way better all session, but they'll have some trouble busting a move higher without a big assist form the guys over in stock land. The market is tentatively bid on leftover bad vibes off the FOMC minutes which helped goose expectations of 50 basis point rate cut at the end of the month. Citigroup is off-loading $12B of loans to private equity and the Fed is making contingency plans (WSJ) should their existing measures to pump gas to the credit markets fail. Lastly, Wholesale Inventories for March came in at 1.1%, far higher than the consensus estimate of 0.6%. Yet another beacon of recession is flashing. Agency MBS markets reacting well to what amounts to only market simmer right now taking most of their cue from stocks as the FNMA 5.50% coupon is trading up 13 ticks (+13/32). Look for investor ratesheet pricing to be better today by around 30 bps.

Industry News:

AFSA Spotlights YSP-Linked Liability Issue

The American Financial Services Association says it could support the Federal Reserve Board's HOEPA proposal for dealing with yield-spread premiums if lenders are not held responsible for a mortgage broker's actions. The Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act proposal requires brokers to negotiate their fee in a dollar amount with the borrower upfront before an application fee is charged and to provide the lender with a signed document. Lenders are expected to rely on this document in paying the YSP to the broker. However, AFSA points out that the lender would not know when it was signed and could be liable if it is not signed and dated contemporaneously. "AFSA asks that the Board clearly and unambiguously remove liability from the lender for things that the broker controls," AFSA executive vice president Bill Himpler says in a comment letter. The Consumer Federation of America is asking the Fed to prohibit YSPs on subprime mortgages. "Negotiating fees up front is good, but it still leaves opportunities for abuse," CFA housing and credit policy director Allen Fishbein indicated

Rangel Proposes Homebuyer Tax Credit

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel, D-N.Y., has proposed a housing tax bill that includes a $7,500 tax credit to stimulate purchases of foreclosed properties and to assist first-time homebuyers. However, the House bill does not include a net-operating-loss carry-back provision for homebuilders and other companies suffering losses in 2008 and 2009 that is contained in a Senate foreclosure prevention bill. "We need to provide relief to the buyers and families themselves, not just the banks and builders," Rep. Rangel said. Like the Senate bill, the Rangel bill allows homeowners who take a standard deduction to deduct property taxes. The House and Senate bills also include a temporary increase in the issuance of revenue bonds to refinance subprime loans. Many Democrats and consumer groups are highly critical of the Senate bill, arguing that it hands homebuilders and mortgage companies tax rebates while providing very little relief for homeowners at risk of foreclosure. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., complained that the Senate bill only provides a "crumb" to Americans who are losing their homes. The senator is being blocked from offering an amendment that allows bankruptcy judges to roll back interest rate increases on adjustable-rate mortgages.

CRL: Brokers Costlier Than Lenders for B&C

In its latest study, the Center for Responsible Lending maintains that subprime borrowers pay significantly more for getting a loan from a mortgage broker than from a retail lender. The study, "Steered Wrong: Brokers, Borrowers and Subprime Loans," looked at more than 1.7 million mortgages originated from 2004 to 2006. The data included credit scores and borrower's equity, but only back-end fees. It did not include upfront fees paid by a consumer to a lender. At a news conference to discuss the study, co-author Brian Ernst said the typical subprime borrower pays $5,222 more in the first four years of a $166,000 mortgage than a similar borrower who received a loan directly from a lender. The CRL attributes the disparity to yield-spread premiums and prepayment penalties. In the prime world, Mr. Ernst said, there is more competitive pricing between loans originated by mortgage brokers and those originated in the retail channel. One of the reasons for the difference, he said, is that in the subprime arena, brokers can give a higher price to a less knowledgeable borrower.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1682, French explorer Robert de La Salle claimed the Mississippi River Basin for France. The Golden Girls were only missed him as they were in Miami at the time.

-- On Today’s date in 1965, the newly built Astrodome in Houston featured its first baseball game, an exhibition between the Astros and the New York Yankees. (The Astros won, 2-1, in 12 innings.)

-- On Today’s date in 2005, Britain's Prince Charles married longtime love Camilla Parker Bowles, who took the title Duchess of Cornwall.

-- Today Playboy magazine founder Hugh Hefner is 82.

-- Today Actress Keshia Knight Pulliam, better known as Rudy Huxtable in the Cosby Show, is 29.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 9th, 2008 12:31 PMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/07/2008
April 7th, 2008 11:52 AM

Market Happenings:

The market is weak, keying off a slightly better equity market and the better confidence it implies along with soft technicals which favor further price deterioration. But in the absence of a downside break the best that can be hoped for is rangy, consolidation with little on the calendar to get prices pumping this week let alone this day. Traders are wary here, sticking to the sidelines if they weren't long and wrong coming in, while ample supply is also pressuring prices. A long time player notes that bonds will remain light and "overly malleable" here with a lack of data and more supply announcements on tap as the Treasury auctions $50 billion in new debt liquidity into the market. Pending Home Sales and the release of the FOMC minutes from their last meeting could make tomorrow interesting, however, for mortgages and bonds, the remainder of the week will influenced by headlines and stock market direction and vigor more than any other factor. Currently FNMA 5.50% 30 MBS are off 11 ticks (-11/32) since the opening bell. Expect lender ratesheet pricing to be off up to 30 bps.

Industry News:

Mortgage Jobs Stabilizing?

Employment in the mortgage industry appears to be stabilizing, with a loss of only 700 jobs in February, as refinancing activity and loan workouts keep the current work force busy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employment in the mortgage banker/broker sector fell from 364,800 in January to 364,100 in February. The industry has lost 28% of its work force since February 2006, and it is back to the level last seen in July 2002, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's senior director of economic forecasting, Orawin Velz. "Job losses seem to be stabilizing," Ms. Velz said. "That is good news for us." However, the forecaster sees industry employment continuing to decline at a moderate rate for the rest of the year as the economy pulls out of a mild recession. "Originations will be quite strong in the first half" due to refinancings, she predicted. But refis will slow considerably in the second half as the economic stimulus package takes effect and the Federal Reserve stops easing, the MBA economist said.

Dodd 'Disappointed' in Housing Bill

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., says he is "disappointed" with the way the Senate's bipartisan housing stimulus bill is shaping up because it doesn't do enough to help people at risk of losing their homes. The bill the Senate is working on is a good first step, the chairman told reporters. But there are 7,000 to 8,000 foreclosures a week. "I feel very strongly you ought to be dealing with how to keep people in their homes," Sen. Dodd said. The senator wants to move quickly on a bill that creates a new Federal Housing Administration program for refinancing 1 million to 2 million at-risk borrowers into affordable FHA-insured mortgages. "I am going to try and get that done," the banking committee chairman said. "That gets to the heart of the problem." Sen. Dodd is holding a hearing on his "HOPE for Homeowners" bill April 7 in Philadelphia. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., is holding a hearing on a similar FHA refinancing program April 9.

German Bank Takes $6.7B B&C-Related Hit

Bayerische Landesbank, Munich, Germany, has taken 4.3 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of writedowns between mid-2007 and the end of March 2008 on a portfolio that includes billions of dollars in U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities. The company and its owners said they are working on a plan "designed to cover theoretical default risks" from asset-backed securities investments up to 4.8 billion euros ($7.5 billion). Bayerische Landesbank saw pretax earnings of 255 million euros ($400 million) during fiscal year 2007, down from 1.33 billion euros ($2.08 billion) in fiscal 2006. In fiscal 2007, it recorded its results under International Financial Reporting Standards for the first time.

This Week's Calendar:

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Apr 07

15:00

Consumer Credit

Feb

$5.0B

$6.0B

$6.9B

Apr 08

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Feb

-1.0%

0.0%

Apr 08

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Mar 18

Apr 09

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Feb

0.7%

0.5%

1.0%

Apr 09

10:30

Crude Inventories

04/05

NA

NA

7317K

Apr 10

08:30

Initial Claims

04/05

380K

383K

407K

Apr 10

08:30

Trade Balance

Feb

-$57.6B

-$57.4B

-$58.2B

Apr 10

14:00

Treasury Budget

Mar

-$47.0B

-$70.3B

-$96.3B

Apr 11

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Mar

NA

NA

0.5%

Apr 11

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Mar

NA

NA

0.6%

Apr 11

10:00

Mich Sentiment-Prel.

Apr

68.0

69.0

69.5

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1966, the U.S. Navy recovered a hydrogen bomb it had lost off the coast of Spain. I put that thing somewhere, where is it?

-- On Today’s date in 2003, U.S. troops in more than 100 U.S. armored vehicles rumbled through downtown Baghdad, seizing one of Saddam Hussein's opulent palaces and toppling a 40-foot statue of the Iraqi ruler.

-- Today Movie director Francis Ford Coppola is 69.

-- Today Singer John Oates from 80’s Rock Bank Oates and Hall is 59.

-- Today Football Hall-of-Famer Tony Dorsett is 54.

-- Today Actor Russell Crowe is 44.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 7th, 2008 11:52 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage market update 4/02/2008
April 2nd, 2008 8:57 AM

Good Morning!

Market Happenings:

ADP's estimate of private payrolls suggest a March gain of 8K. Add an assumption for government growth (3-month average is 32K) to leave a total payroll gain of 40K. However, be wary of the estimates. ADP has overestimated the monthly payroll growth over each of the last six months. The average miss over the last three months is a weighty 95K.The market will use anything and everything it can get its mind around in an attempt to get some legs under prices, but any support will be flimsy and trade twitchy in front of payrolls, especially in light of the upside surprise on ADP's guesstimate. The day will be dependent on Bernanke's Q&A and swings in stock land, but any moves are not likely to have much traction in front of the bigger items on the week's calendar. Factory orders cam e in off 1.3% for March, a full half a percentage point worse than economists expectations of a 0.8% drop. The effect has been muted as all eyes focus on payrolls on Friday for direction. Currently Agency MBS are trading off 6 ticks (-6/32) leaving investor ratesheet pricing today off about 15 or bps from yesterday’s close.

NatCity Up for Sale?

National City Corp., Cleveland, says it is exploring "strategic alternatives," a corporate euphemism for putting the company up for sale. NatCity, which has hired Goldman Sachs as the adviser for the review, said it would make no further statements until its board has approved a specific course of action. Even though NatCity sold the First Franklin subprime originations and servicing platforms to Merrill Lynch at the end of 2006, the company has still suffered in the current credit crisis. According to its 10-K filing, NatCity had $1.0 billion in loans at the end of last year that were not eligible for sale to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. "Declining real estate prices and higher interest rates have caused higher delinquencies and losses on certain mortgage loans, particularly second lien mortgages and home equity lines of credit and especially those that have been sourced from brokers that are outside National City's banking footprint," the 10-K says. "These trends could continue. These conditions have resulted in losses, write downs and impairment charges in the mortgage business, especially in the fourth quarter of 2007." NatCity finished 2007 as the nation's 10th-largest servicer, with a portfolio of $187.5 billion, and the 12th-largest originator, with volume of $46.4 billion for the year, according to the Quarterly Data Report.

Lehman Prices $4B Offering

Lehman Brothers has priced a $4.0 billion offering of convertible preferred shares that boosted its common stock price to levels above $40 Tuesday morning from a Monday close just over $37. The preferred shares are convertible at the option of the holder into a specified amount of common stock at an initial conversion price of about $49 per common share. Rumors about the effect of the U.S. mortgage-sparked credit crunch on certain Wall Street players have put downward pressure on Lehman's stock price in the wake of the Bear Stearns merger deal with JPMorgan Chase. Lehman has a policy of not commenting on market rumors.

Thornburg Obtains Key Capital Infusion

Thornburg Mortgage Inc., Santa Fe, N.M., says it has completed a key $1.35 billion private-placement capital raise from the sale of senior subordinated secured notes, warrants to purchase common stock, and a participation in certain mortgage-related assets. The company said it has received $1.15 billion of the proceeds from the offering and that the remaining $200 million is being held in escrow, to be delivered to the company upon the successful completion of a tender offer for its preferred stock. Thornburg had said it had to raise at least $948 million in capital within seven days to keep in place a key 364-day agreement with some counterparties involved in potentially "material" margin calls it has been facing. The company had to extend the deadline twice before the capital raise was completed.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1513, Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon landed in present-day Florida. The Golden Girls…..

-- On Today’s date in 1917, President Wilson asked Congress to declare war against Germany, saying, "The world must be made safe for democracy." (Congress declared war four days later.)

-- On Today’s date in 1982, several thousand troops from Argentina seized the disputed Falkland Islands, located in the south Atlantic, from Britain. (Britain took back the islands the following June.)

-- On Today’s date in 2005, Pope John Paul II, who'd led the Roman Catholic Church for 26 years, died in his Vatican apartment at age 84.

-- Today Actress Roselyn Sanchez is 35.

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 2nd, 2008 8:57 AMPost a Comment (0)

Today's mortgage market update 4/01/2008
April 1st, 2008 3:33 PM

 

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Market Happenings:

The market is letting a little more air out of its tires despite news of bank write downs and expected bad data due. UBS took a bathing in Q1 as did Deustche, but in a smaller way. Bonds got little steam off the losses as such outcomes had been well telegraphed and remedies (new capital and management) were seen as sufficient to make everything just go away. Equities rallied as a result and now bonds and mortgages are paying the price.ISM Still Weak : The ISM manufacturing index edged 0.3 of a point higher to 48.6 in March. The level is higher than expected but the contractionary level was expected given the low readings from regional indices and the slowing seen in actual factory orders and production. Production and employment were also below 50. The strong 56.5 level in new export orders offer some assurance of foreign manufacturing demand. The prices paid index reached a high of 83.5 but the lack of manufacturing pricing power leaves little effect on consumer prices. Construction spending fell 0.3% in March, much less than economist’s expectations of a 1.00% decline. Today’s better than expected data is boosting the stock market with the Dow up over 200 points. This leaves Agency MBS somewhat in the lurch as less bearish data and investor funds flowing to equities means there are more sellers than buyers for Agency MBS. Currently FNMA 5.50% coupons are off 17 ticks (-17/32) from close yesterday. Expect lender ratesheet pricing to be off up to 50 bps.

Industry News:

Treasury Proposes State-Rating Mortgage Panel

The Treasury Department is proposing a federal Mortgage Origination Commission that would rate the adequacy of state regulation and licensing of mortgage lenders and brokers as part of a larger plan to restructure the financial regulatory system. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the MOC would provide "important information to the marketplace about the strength of each state's mortgage compliance standards." If a state is rated "weak," mortgages originated in that state "should be viewed cautiously before being securitized," he said. The secretary noted that a large percentage of "problematic" subprime loans were originated by state-licensed lenders. (The Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees thrifts, would be incorporated into the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency under the Treasury plan.) The "powerful" new commission, coupled with the Federal Reserve's Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act rules to ban abusive lending practices, "should go a long way in preventing recent issues from recurring," he said. The Conference of State Banking Supervisors responded that the Treasury plan "disregards" recent improvements in state licensing standards and reporting systems. In addition, the CSBS supports legislation currently under consideration in Congress that would strengthen the states' initiatives.

UBS Takes $19B Mortgage Hit; Chair Resigns

UBS AG -- once a major warehouse lender to the subprime industry -- says it will take a $19 billion writedown on its mortgage-related investments in the first quarter, including charges against its structured finance positions. The Swiss bank also announced that its chairman, Marcel Ospel, is stepping down. (On Tuesday morning, the German bank Deutsche Bank announced $4 billion in mortgage-related writedowns.) UBS also said it is forming a new unit "to hold certain currently illiquid U.S. real estate assets." The bank/investment bank said it expects to lose $12 billion in the first quarter. UBS estimated that it has $15 billion in financial exposure to subprime-related assets, compared with $28 billion at the end of December. The bank plans to raise $15 billion in new capital.

HUD Secretary Resigns Under Fire

Housing Secretary Alphonso Jackson is "stepping down" on April 18 after being dogged by allegations of using his office to help friends and Bush supporters as well as recent calls for his resignation by two senators that oversee the Department of Housing and Urban Development. HUD officials said they didn't know whether the White House is ready to appoint Mr. Jackson's successor. Under normal circumstances, Deputy Secretary Roy Bernardi, a former mayor of Syracuse, N.Y, would be in line to become the acting secretary. At a HUD news conference, Mr. Jackson said he is stepping down to attend to "personal and family matters" and abruptly left the room without taking questions from the news media. In testifying before two Senate panels, the secretary refused to answer questions about a lawsuit by the Philadelphia housing authority, which alleges that HUD tried to punish the agency for refusing to sell land to one of Mr. Jackson's friends. Sens. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., and Patty Murray, D-Wash., called for the secretary's resignation on March 21 after he declined to answer questions about his conduct. At a time when the country is facing a national housing crisis, the "allegations of cronyism and favoritism against Secretary Jackson are a worsening distraction at HUD," Sen. Murray said. "It is time for Secretary Jackson to go." Sen. Murray chairs a HUD appropriations subcommittee.

Misc:

-- On Today’s date in 1945, American forces launched the amphibious invasion of Okinawa during World War II.

-- On Today’s date in 1998, U.S. District Judge Susan Webber Wright dismissed Paula Jones' lawsuit against President Clinton, saying her claims of sexual harassment fell "far short" of being worthy of trial. (Clinton later settled with Jones without apology or admission of guilt.)

-- Today Reggae singer Jimmy Cliff is 60.

-- Today Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is 58

Today's market update brought to you by:

Todd Albrigo

Account Executive

CMG Mortgage, Inc.


Posted by Karl Niederer on April 1st, 2008 3:33 PMPost a Comment (0)

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